A Poll Worth Considering

At the risk of undermining my own argument about polls, I wanted to highlight this one specifically:

McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.

View Results From Prior Days

About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season.

I have three reasons for sharing this one specific poll.  First is that last bit above that this was the most accurate in the 2004 election cycle.  As such, it could reasonably be argued that this one poll might carry more weight in terms of accuracy than any other.  Second, I also wanted to point out some specific bullet points contained in this poll that I think are worth mentioning:

Age Obama McCain Undecided
18-24 22% 74% 4%
25-44 47% 45% 8%
45-64 49% 36% 15%
65+ 40% 46% 14%

This is very surprising, given that the youth vote is supposed to be locked up by Obama.  Of course, given that the youth vote isn't really showing any signs of materializing in vastly different numbers than previous elections, it may not matter.  Still, it's another example of how the liberal narrative constantly being spouted by the media is flat out wrong.

Household description Obama McCain Undecided
Upper/upper middle 52% 38% 10%
Middle 43% 48% 9%
Working 44% 41% 15%
Lower 63% 26% 11%

I think this is interesting because we can see where Obama has so much traction with his socialist policies.  Fundamentally, they are all about taking money from the rich and giving it to the poor, and the poor are responding.  This is a key consideration in this election – how many people feel they should be taken care of by the government compared to how many people feel they should take care of themselves.  The answer to this question matters a lot, because you as a taxpayer will be footing the bill for those socialist policies if Obama wins.

Religion Obama McCain Undecided
Protestant 38% 51% 11%
Catholic 39% 48% 13%
Other Christian 40% 49% 11%
Jewish 57% 17% 27%
Other 55% 36% 9%
None 77% 13% 10%

Though it took some time, McCain seems to have finally brought many Christians on board.  I'm sure this was in no small part due to Sarah Palin, but the fact is he's done it.  These numbers coincide with recent reports that the Catholic vote — which is around 25% of the electorate — is starting to break for McCain.  Even so, I find it disappointing that so many Christians (both Protestants and Catholics) support Obama given his clear record of radical pro-abortionism and support of homosexual marriage.  I'm also amazed that so many Jewish voters support him since he has an equally clear record of questionable positions on support for Israel (as well as a number of people near to him who are decidedly anti-Israel).  To me, the most indicative number on this chart, though, is that 77% of people who declare no faith at all support him.  It would be interesting to actually see how many people fall into each of these categories, but without that, the only conclusion we are left with is that Obama appeals the most to those who want a purely secular government.  Reminder: when the State rules and there is no God, you have communism.

Displays flag Obama McCain Undecided
Yes 36% 51% 13%
No 63% 28% 9%

This one needs no explanation.

Interesting numbers, coming from the most accurate pollster from the 2004 election.  Still, haven't I always said any one poll is useless for identifying specific results?  I still believe that, though we are rapidly approaching that point where polls will start migrating to the most accurate numbers they can possibly field in an effort to be right.  So, this brings us to the third and final reason I wanted to highlight this poll.


Do you remember the turmoil back in 2000 when Democrats claimed Bush stole the election (which was a ridiculously false accusation, by the way)?  We've been hearing for months that the only possible way Obama could lose this election is if America is composed of a bunch of racists.  That assertion is not only utterly false, but it is also potentially deadly.  Think about it – the media and the liberal Left have been positioning this election for quite some time, saying that Obama is way ahead, this election is over, and that the only thing that could possibly make Obama lose is if McCain stole the election through a bunch of racists rubes in middle America.  They have framed the conventional wisdom so that everyone thinks Obama has this thing in the bag.  If McCain wins, think about the kind of turmoil we went through in 2000 (and the level of Bush hatred that resulted through all eight years of his presidency), and throw in the specter of racism on top of it.  It'll be like throwing gasoline on a bonfire.

We've already seen police departments around the country begin preparations for race riots.  The real problem is that the last few riots we've seen are the results of sports events, and some of those were riots because the team won.  It certainly appears that we're looking at riots no matter who wins, but I think it'll be far more violent if Obama loses.  If riots do occur, especially on a large scale, millions of dollars of damage will be done, and it is entirely possible that people will lose their lives.

So, the third reason I wanted to highlight this poll that shows such a small margin (and remember, there are others, too) is to prove that this election is very, very tight.  It is not a landslide victory for Obama.  It is not in the bag for Obama.  It is not merely a formality before Obama takes his place in the Oval Office.  It is nothing that can be stolen because it is very much up for grabs right now.

This message needs to get out for the single simple reason that expectations need to be changed to reflect reality.  The more people see this information, the less violent those riots are likely to be.  Make no mistake, this is serious business.

There's my two cents.


I'm a gun-owning, Bible-thumping, bitter clinger conservative in the heartland. You can disagree with me if you want (you do, after all, have a right to be wrong)...just don't be rude or stupid and we'll get along just fine! :)

Posted in General Politics, Uncategorized

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