Fun With Poll Math

The poll average shows Obama with an overall lead of 6.8% right now.  Of course, if you look at the numbers, you'll see two polls that are way, way off from all the others: Pew (15%) and Newsweek (12%).  Just for fun, I wondered what the average would be if you took out those two outliers.  Guess what the math comes to then?


Hardly an imminent blowout, and definitely something that can be overcome in one week.  I would expect the margin to tighten even further over the next seven days.  Another thing worth examining is the trend of the most accurate individual poll in the 2004 race, the IBD/TIPP poll.  Over the past couple weeks, it's shown these results:

 Date    McCain    Obama    Not Sure    Spread  
27-Oct 44.20% 47.00% 8.80% Obama +2.8 
26-Oct 43.30% 46.50% 10.10% Obama +3.2 
25-Oct 41.90% 45.80% 12.20% Obama +3.9 
24-Oct 42.30% 45.80% 11.90% Obama +3.5 
23-Oct 43.70% 44.80% 11.60% Obama +1.1 
22-Oct 42.00% 45.70% 12.30% Obama +3.7 
21-Oct 40.90% 46.90% 12.10% Obama +6.0 
20-Oct 41.40% 46.70% 11.90% Obama +5.3 
19-Oct 41.50% 46.60% 11.90% Obama +5.1 
18-Oct 39.80% 47.20% 13.00% Obama +7.3 
17-Oct 40.60% 45.90% 13.50% Obama +5.3 
16-Oct 41.60% 45.20% 13.20% Obama +3.6 
15-Oct 41.90% 45.20% 12.90% Obama +3.3 
14-Oct 41.90% 44.80% 13.30% Obama +3.0 
13-Oct 42.70% 44.80% 12.50% Obama +2.1 

As you can see, this has been a close race almost every day, and within the typical margin of error (4%) about 2/3 of the time.  I only relate this to try to dispel the rumor that this election is over, a done deal, a lock for Obama, and inevitable.  Don't buy it – it's simply not true.

If McCain continues to hammer Obama on his outright socialism and his clear disgust with the 'fundamental flaw' of the limited government outlined in our Constitution, as well as his deceitful tax plans and questionable associations, he'll pull it out.


There's my two cents.


I'm a gun-owning, Bible-thumping, bitter clinger conservative in the heartland. You can disagree with me if you want (you do, after all, have a right to be wrong)...just don't be rude or stupid and we'll get along just fine! :)

Posted in General Politics, Uncategorized

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