Why McCain Can Win

I suggest you disconnect yourself from all sources of the mainstream media for the next 48 hours.  You will hear a constant stream of Obama-wins-by-a-landslide predictions, poll after poll that shows the election is over before the voting booths even open, and all manner of justification about why Obama cannot possibly lose this election.

It's just not worth watching or listening to, because I guarantee you that's all you'll see and hear.  What you won't hear is all the reasons that McCain might pull this one out.

First, there's the Bradley Effect.  Basically, this is where people will tell pollsters that they'll vote for the black guy (so they don't look like a racist), but when they step into the privacy of the voting booth, they don't.  This is a real phenomenon and has been demonstrated in elections for years, but it is impossible to tell how little or how much it happens.  Tied in with this is that huge voting bloc, the Baby Boomers.  I've personally spoken to at least two people from that generation who have said that as a collective, they just aren't ready for a black president (or a woman president) yet.  I was assured it wasn't a race thing (or gender thing), it was just a question of being comfortable with the stereotypical white male in charge of the country.  Seems kind of strange to me, but that's what they told me.

Reverse motivation.  The media blitz to declare the election over weeks ago may have an unintended consequence: driving down the liberal Democrat vote.  After all, if the election isn't even close, why bother voting at all?

The safe choice.  This is still a dangerous world filled with terrorists, rogue nations, and many other difficulties.  At the end of the day, people are much more likely to go with the safe choice than a choice that is radically different.  Couple this with the enormous experience gap between Obama and McCain, and those looking for safety and security have an easy choice.

Flip-flops.  Barack Obama has taken both sides of almost every campaign issue over the past two years, occasionally at the same time.  People can smell disingenuousness, and political pandering usually turns people off.  McCain has done a pretty fair job of putting out ads that illustrate this, and I think it raises questions in people's minds: can you really trust Obama?

Obama has loudly talked up the youth vote, but historically the youth vote has never materialized.  It could happen this year, but it would be the first time.  Interestingly enough, just this morning I heard two different reports that the Obama campaign is speaking at last-minute rallies and hopes to make all those rabid Obama 'fans' into Obama 'voters'.  Isn't that strange?  Why would they say something like that if they weren't worried about the enthusiastic base showing up at the polls?

Race not an issue.  As I've blogged about before, the whole race thing — if it happens — will actually be a slight help to Obama.  Even if he got 100% of the black vote, they're only about 13% of the population.  A very big (and vocal) minority, to be sure, but the white vote is what wins elections, simply because of the volume.

PUMA.  Despite being almost entirely ignored, there is a significant bloc of enraged Hillary Clinton supporters who are viciously anti-Obama.  They are working feverishly to elect McCain just to spite Obama.  FYI…PUMA stands for 'party unity my a**.  See what I mean?

Joe Biden has to be one of Obama's biggest concerns.  Every time he opens his mouth, he's spewing a gaffe that has to be spun.  While it's entertaining for us on the Right, it's also problematic for Obama, and having Biden be 'one heartbeat from the presidency' is just as scary to a lot of people as Palin is to others.

The Media.  This is a big one in my opinion.  The American people don't like to be told what to do or what to think.  We are generally an intelligent, independent lot who want to make up our own minds.  Back in the primaries, the media really helped guide the GOP nomination to McCain (along with independents and Dems voting in the GOP primaries).  Then they helped guide the Dem nomination to Obama.  Since then, it has become apparent that the media is actively working to get Obama elected.  I saw a poll recently that showed over 70% of Americans believing that the media is helping Obama, while only about 15% think the media is helping McCain.  So, it's no secret anymore, and as such, I think Americans will be voting against the media as much as Obama this year.

Dirty tactics.  Obama and his minion have resorted to some of the foulest, most vicious, and utterly untrue attacks on the GOP ticket, from mocking McCain's war injuries to accusing Palin's family of incest.  It is shocking and vulgar, and the good and decent people of America generally don't respond well to that.

Questionable associations.  Barack Obama has way, way too many anti-American associations to comfort most American voters.  We all know one or two bad apples, but with Obama it's a pattern of behavior that has been well established.  There can be no doubt that he is comfortable and has made mentors out of some of the most virulently anti-American people in the country.  The character issue counts, and this one could really hurt him.  The key here is how many of those associations will be known to the average voter, since the media has done its best to shield Obama from damaging reports of his friendships.

Abortion and infanticide.  His record clearly shows that he opposed a bill that would have banned infanticide.  He is so radically pro-abortion that he opposed measures that even abortion rights groups supported.  As this information finally seeped out, we have seen his support in Christian circles drop substantially.

National security.  He has pledged to gut the military.  Never a good thing, especially in the middle of two wars and under constant threat of terrorism.  He will also pull out of Iraq, but most Americans now believe the victory is ours.

Socialism.  Again, this is generally considered very bad to most Americans (though there are a distressingly high number of people who openly want handouts no matter the cost).  The whole Joe the Plumber episode really showed how much this philosophy opened voters' eyes.

Key swing states, like Pennsylvania and Missouri, have started swinging toward McCain in recent days.  Most key states are within the margin of error on the most recent polls, with a chunk of undecided voters much bigger than the difference.  Many of those undecideds are now breaking toward McCain.

Intangibles.  We know that Obama's predicted margins of victory during the primaries were shown to be high by an average of 7% in 24 of 26 states.  As most polls are within 2-4 points right now, that fact alone could spell disaster for tomorrow's actual turnout if it holds true.  I believe his poll numbers have been inflated by the media all along, and that when voters finally get their say, a very different picture will be painted.  Also, we've been seeing in recent days some reports of disaffected Obama staffers who have said that the Obama campaign is sweating bullets right now because they know they've been getting kid glove treatment, and that if they're not up by 5-7% in any given state, they don't consider it a win.  These reports are anecdotal rumors, but what purpose would they serve anyone if they were false?  It seems a stretch that Obama would plant them to help generate urgency in his own base, and McCain gains nothing from it because it could similarly depress his own turnout.  It's circumstantial evidence at best, but it's intriguing if it's true.  As we all know, the number one issue of the election is the economy, and recent polls show that McCain is now leading Obama on that issue.  Throughout the Dem primary, Obama simply could not close the deal on Hillary, and his numbers consistently showed that his actual results fell short of his hyped-up predictions.  Also telling is recent news that the GOP is looking at a much stronger showing in the House of Reps, which is a sign that the Republican brand name isn't quite as negative as previously thought.  And, perhaps most importantly, politics is all about momentum.  Right now, McCain has it.  Almost every major poll has shown a noticeable closing in the past few days, as McCain appears to be closing the deal with undecided voters in swing states.

Let me be clear: am I predicting all of this will happen?  No.  Some of these things are more significant than others, and it would take most of them happening for McCain to pull out the victory.  I am simply relaying all of the reasons that this election is not over until the votes are counted.  Don't believe anyone who tells you otherwise – these are all legitimate reasons for optimism on the part of McCain-Palin and those of us on the Right.  Is McCain assured a victory?  Absolutely not.  It will all come down to which side has the best grass roots get-out-the-vote effort tomorrow.  My purpose in sharing all these things with you is to provide a counter to the incessant chanting of the media that this election is over  so you might as well not bother with voting.  Trust me when I tell you that every single vote can make a real difference, and that all these things are a real cause for concern to the Obamessiah, and hope to McCain…but you won't hear that message in the mainstream media for the next 48 hours.

So, turn off the TV, ditch the newspaper, ignore everything you see and hear — especially the exit polls! — and get to the polls to vote.  And check out this blog, too.  🙂

There's my two cents.

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About

I'm a gun-owning, Bible-thumping, bitter clinger conservative in the heartland. You can disagree with me if you want (you do, after all, have a right to be wrong)...just don't be rude or stupid and we'll get along just fine! :)

Posted in General Politics

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